The Questions
Do teams display biases when drafting? How can a successful organization exploit these biases to make the most effective draft decisions?
The Theory
In a perfect world, the only predictor of success in the NBA would be a player's draft position.
The Data
The effectiveness, measured by Win Shares, of all players drafted into the NBA since 2000 (over 700 players total)
The Findings
NBA teams display a systematic bias by overvaluing certain player attributes that do not correlate to success. Teams are consistently drafting certain types of players higher than their eventual performance would dictate.
Inefficiencies in the NBA Draft
The Value of Drafting Youth
Performance of young players relative to draft position
Outside Interests
Links
In my spare time, I enjoy combining my interests in sports with my analytic skills to study, for instance, decision making in the National Basketball Association. An example project, exploring the biases that may hamper teams' ability to make the optimal draft selections, is discussed below.
Draft Pick Values (WS), 2000-2012
Michael A. Zilis
Associate Professor, University of Kentucky
AMERICAN POLITICS | Political Behavior | Law and Courts
Copyright © Michael Zilis